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Austria

Austrian Grand Prix

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Spielberg·Spielberg, Austria·June 28, 2026

3/4 models predict K ANTONELLI wins -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite, GPT-5.4

Pos
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite
GPT-5.4
Grok 4.20
1
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
L HAMILTON
2
L HAMILTON
L HAMILTON
L HAMILTON
K ANTONELLI
3
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
G RUSSELL
4
G RUSSELL
L NORRIS
G RUSSELL
L NORRIS
5
L NORRIS
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
6
O PIASTRI
I HADJAR
L NORRIS
I HADJAR
7
I HADJAR
C LECLERC
I HADJAR
M VERSTAPPEN
8
L LAWSON
A ALBON
C LECLERC
C LECLERC
9
P GASLY
L LAWSON
P GASLY
L LAWSON
10
F COLAPINTO
A LINDBLAD
L LAWSON
F COLAPINTO
FLK ANTONELLIK ANTONELLIL HAMILTONK ANTONELLI
Win odds
K ANTONELLI
24%
L HAMILTON
18%
G RUSSELL
14%
M VERSTAPPEN
12%
L NORRIS
10%
O PIASTRI
8%
K ANTONELLI
35%
L HAMILTON
25%
M VERSTAPPEN
15%
L NORRIS
10%
O PIASTRI
8%
I HADJAR
7%
K ANTONELLI
24%
L HAMILTON
21%
M VERSTAPPEN
17%
G RUSSELL
11%
L NORRIS
8%
C LECLERC
5%
L HAMILTON
28%
K ANTONELLI
22%
G RUSSELL
14%
L NORRIS
9%
O PIASTRI
7%
I HADJAR
6%
Notes

Winner Pick

Antonelli has won back-to-back races with dominant pace and fastest laps in Monaco and Canada, and the Red Bull Ring's high-speed layout suits the Mercedes package well this season. His momentum and confidence make him the standout favourite heading into Austria.

Dark Horse

Max Verstappen at the Red Bull Ring is always dangerous — his home crowd support and Red Bull's historically strong setup at Spielberg could see him challenge strongly if the car has come on in development, especially under any mixed weather conditions.

Risk Factor

The 41% rain probability on race day is the biggest wildcard — a wet or mixed-conditions race could completely shuffle the order, benefiting drivers like Colapinto or Hadjar who have shown adaptability, while disrupting Mercedes' expected dominance.

Winner Pick

Kimi Antonelli is currently on a dominant streak and has shown superior wet-weather management in recent outings, making him the prime candidate for victory in Austria.

Dark Horse

Alex Albon has been punching above his weight in the Williams and could capitalize on a chaotic, rain-affected race to secure a high points finish.

Risk Factor

The 41% chance of rain creates significant unpredictability, as a poorly timed tire change or a late-race downpour could easily scramble the field.

Winner Pick

Antonelli carries the strongest momentum into Spielberg with back-to-back wins before Barcelona and a Mercedes package that has looked consistently quick across very different track types. Austria rewards traction, confidence under braking and qualifying speed, which currently suits both driver and car well even with a mixed-weather risk.

Dark Horse

Lawson is a strong sleeper here because Racing Bulls have repeatedly placed cars in the top 10 recently, and Spielberg's short lap can reward a tidy qualifier who stays in the DRS train. If conditions turn variable, Hadjar is not the only Red Bull junior-team car that could spring a surprise.

Risk Factor

The biggest threat is weather disruption: a 41% rain chance on race day could scramble tyre strategy, neutralize pure pace and open the door to Verstappen or Hamilton. Ferrari's recent uptick also means Hamilton could easily convert if Mercedes miss the setup window.

Winner Pick

Lewis Hamilton in the Ferrari is in career-best form, winning Barcelona and finishing on the podium in the last three races. The Spielberg layout rewards his experience and the Ferrari has shown excellent pace in mixed conditions, and the 41% rain chance plays into his wet-weather mastery.

Dark Horse

Isack Hadjar has been a revelation at Red Bull, consistently finishing in the top 6 lately. In changeable weather he can be aggressive and opportunistic, making him a strong candidate for a surprise podium or best-of-the-rest result.

Risk Factor

Kimi Antonelli has won the last two races and Mercedes is very quick in cooler conditions. If the rain stays light enough for slick tires most of the race, Antonelli's one-lap pace and Mercedes' straight-line speed on the long uphill section could steal the win.