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United States Grand Prix

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Austin·Austin, United States·October 25, 2026

4/4 models predict M VERSTAPPEN wins — Claude Sonnet, Gemini Flash, GPT, Grok

Pos
Claude Sonnet
Gemini Flash
GPT
Grok
1
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
M VERSTAPPEN
2
C LECLERC
L HAMILTON
C LECLERC
K ANTONELLI
3
L HAMILTON
C LECLERC
L NORRIS
L HAMILTON
4
K ANTONELLI
K ANTONELLI
L HAMILTON
C LECLERC
5
L NORRIS
L NORRIS
K ANTONELLI
L NORRIS
6
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
O PIASTRI
7
G RUSSELL
L LAWSON
G RUSSELL
G RUSSELL
8
I HADJAR
G RUSSELL
I HADJAR
I HADJAR
9
L LAWSON
N HULKENBERG
L LAWSON
N HULKENBERG
10
N HULKENBERG
I HADJAR
N HULKENBERG
L LAWSON
FLC LECLERCC LECLERCC LECLERCM VERSTAPPEN
Win odds
M VERSTAPPEN
42%
C LECLERC
20%
L HAMILTON
12%
K ANTONELLI
8%
L NORRIS
5%
O PIASTRI
4%
M VERSTAPPEN
42%
C LECLERC
16%
L HAMILTON
12%
K ANTONELLI
10%
L NORRIS
6%
O PIASTRI
4%
M VERSTAPPEN
38%
C LECLERC
18%
L HAMILTON
10%
K ANTONELLI
8%
L NORRIS
7%
O PIASTRI
5%
M VERSTAPPEN
42%
K ANTONELLI
16%
L NORRIS
12%
C LECLERC
9%
L HAMILTON
8%
O PIASTRI
5%
Notes

Winner Pick

Verstappen has swept the last three Grands Prix with dominant pace in both qualifying and race trim, and Red Bull's updated package has historically excelled at COTA's mix of high-speed esses and hard braking zones.

Dark Horse

Kimi Antonelli has been quietly consistent with multiple podiums in recent rounds and Mercedes' strong traction out of Turn 1 could see him jump ahead of the McLarens if he nails the start.

Risk Factor

A 26% chance of rain on race day could scramble strategy and tire choices, potentially neutralizing Verstappen's dry-pace advantage and opening the door for Ferrari or a wildcard wet-weather performer.

Winner Pick

Max Verstappen continues his unstoppable form with Red Bull, utilizing the high-speed aero efficiency of his car to dominate the sweeping sectors of Austin.

Dark Horse

Liam Lawson has shown great speed in the Racing Bulls recently and could leverage a strong strategy to challenge the top six.

Risk Factor

A sudden afternoon shower or high wind gusts at COTA could upset the aerodynamic balance and trigger safety cars, shuffling the order.

Winner Pick

Verstappen is the form pick after three straight wins and Austin should suit Red Bull’s traction, high-speed stability and tyre management. The warm race-day forecast also increases degradation, which usually rewards the most consistent long-run package.

Dark Horse

Liam Lawson is a strong sleeper for points: Racing Bulls have been regularly in the lower top ten recently, and COTA’s mixed-speed layout can reward confident braking and good race execution. If wind or a brief shower disrupts strategy, he could climb higher than expected.

Risk Factor

The main threat is weather and wind: with a meaningful rain chance and gusty conditions, COTA can become error-prone through the esses and braking zones. Ferrari’s recent pace, especially Leclerc’s, also makes Verstappen vulnerable if qualifying or tyre strategy swings away from Red Bull.

Winner Pick

Verstappen continues his dominant late-season form with three straight wins and is the clear favorite on a power-sensitive Austin layout.

Dark Horse

Isack Hadjar (#6) has shown strong pace in the last two races and could capitalize on any Red Bull reliability issues to score points.

Risk Factor

A 26% rain chance on race day could shuffle the order dramatically if a shower hits during the window, favoring drivers with strong wet-weather records like Hamilton.